San Francisco CRE Capital Allocation 2026
Question
How should capital read San Francisco in 2026: as an AI-led gateway office recovery, a distressed CBD basis-reset market, or a broader Bay Area allocation where life sciences, multifamily, industrial, retail, and hospitality need separate geography rules?
Core Thesis
San Francisco is investable in 2026 only as a boundary-disciplined selection market. The best-supported positive signal is not "SF office is back"; it is that AI tenant demand has become measurable in SoMa and Mission Bay and is beginning to support the trophy edge of the Financial District and Downtown Core. The counter-signal is equally important: commodity CBD and Mid-Market Tenderloin and Civic Center office remain distress or conversion trades, not recovery trades. Outside office, constrained multifamily and East Bay / Port of Oakland industrial are more durable income lanes, South San Francisco life sciences is relevant but still needs pricing and tenant proof, and retail / hospitality should be underwritten as operating-corridor bets rather than broad gateway beta.
The June 15 hospitality RSS batch adds Sutter Mansion as a boutique-hotel sale signal for San Francisco. Keep it in the hospitality operating-corridor and asset-liquidity lane; it should not be used as RevPAR, cap-rate, downtown recovery, or hotel-market value evidence without deed, operating, lender, and broker records. See Source: Sutter Mansion San Francisco Hotel Sale 2026.
The Strada / Samsara 1 De Haro source adds a cleaner positive office sale comp to the AI / trophy-office side of the barbell. properties.id=5386 captures a $103M, $771/SF acquisition of a fully leased 133K SF Showplace Square mass-timber asset with 86K SF of office preleased to Samsara and 43K SF of light-industrial space. It strengthens the tenant-specific premium-basis lane, but it does not validate broad SF office beta or vacancy-heavy commodity assets. See Source - Strada Acquires Samsara Showplace Square HQ 2026.
The Ellis / Baupost Great America Commons acquisition belongs on the Bay Area boundary-discipline side of the memo rather than the San Francisco office recovery lane. properties.id=5394 captures a reported $310M, 635K SF, 77%-leased Santa Clara office / R&D purchase with $232.1M of reported acquisition financing. It strengthens the view that selective Silicon Valley office / R&D assets can still attract institutional capital, but it should not be used as evidence that San Francisco CBD commodity office has normalized. See Source: Ellis / Baupost Great America Commons Santa Clara 2026.
CBRE's Silicon Valley Industrial Q1 2026 row adds a South Bay premium-industrial marker: 5.4% vacancy, -218,958 SF absorption, and $1.73/SF/month direct NNN asking rate after a large new delivery. It supports specialized industrial / R&D-adjacent allocation in Silicon Valley, not generic SF proper or East Bay logistics underwriting. See Source: CBRE Silicon Valley Industrial Figures Q1 2026.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Silicon Valley Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026 advances that South Bay lane into midyear with a full table: 6.4% vacancy, +649,641 SF Q2 absorption, +851,866 SF YTD absorption, $1.63/SF/month NNN overall rent, and 1.58M SF under construction. South I-880 / Fremont / Newark led demand and manufacturing outabsorbed warehouse product, but 72.6% of the 2.6M-SF proposed pipeline was speculative and Morgan Hill/Gilroy remained 11.9% vacant. The allocation read stays specialized, tenant- and power-proof industrial rather than broad Bay Area logistics beta.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield East Bay Oakland Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026 adds the corresponding Alameda / Contra Costa table: 7.8% vacancy, +65,895 SF Q2 absorption, -1.07M SF YTD absorption, $1.21/SF/month NNN overall rent, and only 617,353 SF under construction. Fremont and Newark led the quarter while Hayward, Union City, and the YTD Oakland row remained negative. That separation reinforces the allocation rule: favor modern southern-I-880 and tenant-backed advanced-manufacturing product, while underwriting Oakland / port and traditional-user stock with basis and leasing-cost protection.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield East Bay Oakland Office MarketBeat Q2 2026 closes the East Bay office boundary with a full current table: 27.4% vacancy, -80,729 SF Q2 / -178,368 SF YTD absorption, $3.68/SF/month full-service asking rent, and zero construction. Oakland CBD was 38.1% vacant and City Center reached 41.9%; Class A was 36.2% vacant despite a substantial asking-rent premium. This is distressed-basis and lease-up-specialist territory, not evidence that San Francisco's AI office boom has already crossed the Bay.
CBRE's San Francisco Industrial Q1 2026 row separately reports 8.3% vacancy, +155,156 SF absorption, and $1.82/SF/month industrial-gross asking rent. It belongs in the San Francisco / Bay Area industrial comparison lane, but rent-basis and geography labels matter before comparing it with East Bay NNN or Silicon Valley direct-NNN rows. See Source: CBRE San Francisco Industrial Figures Q1 2026.
Source: Matthews San Francisco CA Industrial Market Report Q2 2026 adds a later but differently bounded source-family row: 12.5% vacancy, +693,000 SF of Q2 absorption, 1.0% year-over-year rent growth, $29.65/SF annual asking rent, 1.3M SF under construction, $89.4M of sales volume, $440/SF pricing, and a 5.9% cap rate. The capital read is quality-selective infill and specialized-user demand rather than broad beta: improving absorption and rent growth are constructive, but elevated vacancy, limited sales volume, an unstated lease structure, and an undefined survey geography block direct blending with CBRE or C&W.
Marcus & Millichap's San Francisco Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 adds a current retail overlay, but it does not change the allocation rule from corridor-specific to broad-market. The source supports a downtown recovery watchlist through improving foot traffic, AI-linked office reoccupancy context, and Mayor Daniel Lurie's Heart of the City policy agenda, while preserving the hard gate that Union Square and Fisherman's Wharf retail vacancy remained near or above 10%. The cleaner retail lanes are still neighborhood and Peninsula stability: Fillmore / Japantown are called more insulated from downtown weakness, and San Mateo County vacancy is described as remaining in the 5% range since 2020. See Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Retail Market Report 1Q 2026.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Francisco North Bay Retail MarketBeat Q2 2026 adds the first table-grade current-quarter shopping-center cross-check for the Bay Area branch. C&W reports 38.3M SF, 6.3% vacancy, +5,352 SF of Q2 absorption, -182,630 SF of YTD absorption, 106,501 SF under construction, and $25.56/SF/year NNN asking rent. County dispersion keeps the allocation gate alive: Napa and San Mateo were below 5% vacancy, while San Francisco County was 15.4% vacant. Use this as source-family and county-selection evidence beside Marcus' narrower SF teaser, not as a broad retail recovery claim.
Source: Matthews San Francisco CA Retail Market Report Q2 2026 adds a separate current row with 5.3% vacancy, $44.22/SF asking rent, +0.7% rent growth, $231M of Q2 sales, $527/SF pricing, and a 5.4% cap rate. The +307K-SF absorption figure is trailing-year. Keep Matthews' neighborhood/grocery/service strength separate from C&W's six-county shopping-center table and San Francisco County stress; the allocation lane remains corridor- and format-specific.
Marcus & Millichap's Oakland Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 adds the East Bay retail counterpart. It reinforces boundary discipline: Oakland office can remain distressed while Downtown Oakland retail screens tighter because transit and residential foot traffic support small-format demand. The source says more than 80% of 2026 openings were preleased as of January and Downtown Oakland entered 2026 below 5% vacancy, but Berkeley-Richmond stayed above 10% vacancy and big-box leasing remained rare. See Source: Marcus & Millichap Oakland Retail Market Report 1Q 2026.
Marcus & Millichap's Oakland Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026 adds the East Bay apartment counterpart. It supports a basis-sensitive multifamily recovery lane because Oakland's 2019-2024 delivery overhang pushed vacancy to 5.8% in 2023, but net absorption was outpacing deliveries in 2026 and Oakland-Berkeley posted a 200-bp vacancy decline plus 4.2% rent growth in the 12 months ended March 2026. Use it as East Bay apartment recovery evidence, not as proof that Oakland office distress has cleared or that all Bay Area multifamily should be underwritten as one market. See Source: Marcus & Millichap Oakland Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026.
Marcus & Millichap's San Francisco Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026 adds the SF-proper apartment counterpart. It strengthens the high-income renter-demand lane because Marcus says AI / tech innovation and downtown startups were reinforcing demand, with SoMa and Mission Bay posting above-10% rent gains as of late 2025 and metro Class A average monthly rent rising nearly 10%. The caveat stays central: San Mateo-Burlingame showed Class A vacancy above 10% while Class B/C stayed below 4%, so class and corridor selection matter as much as the gateway label. See Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026.
Marcus & Millichap's San Francisco Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026 reinforces the same constrained-gateway apartment lane. The public teaser says San Francisco did not see a post-pandemic supply expansion, demand has steadily outpaced openings, the CBD is in the 3% vacancy range after a 160-bp 2025 decline, and Class A rent growth exceeded 13% year over year in SoMa, Mission Bay, Richmond-Western Addition, and Downtown San Francisco. Treat it as SF-proper / Class A demand evidence, not a full operating table. See Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026.
Marcus & Millichap's San Jose Retail Market Report 1Q 2026 adds the South Bay / Silicon Valley retail counterpart. It supports San Jose as the least volatile Bay Area retail market in the teaser, with limited development, tech employment, higher-income households, and affluent consumer demand insulating retail better than San Francisco or Oakland. The usable allocation lane is node-specific: Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale-Cupertino, and Campbell-Los Gatos entered 2026 with sub-4% vacancy, while Mountain View-Los Altos and North San Jose remain big-box backfill watch nodes. See Source: Marcus & Millichap San Jose Retail Market Report 1Q 2026.
Marcus & Millichap's San Jose Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026 adds the South Bay apartment counterpart to the same boundary-discipline rule. The teaser supports premium Silicon Valley apartment demand with near-3% late-2025 vacancy and above-6% rent growth in Mountain View, Palo Alto, Los Altos, and North Sunnyvale, while East / South San Jose saw rent growth below 2%. The supply support is real but source-scoped: Marcus says the 2026 pipeline is only 10% of 2025 volume. Keep the tech-concentration downside attached. See Source: Marcus & Millichap San Jose Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026.
Source: Marcus & Millichap San Jose Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026 reinforces the South Bay premium-renter lane at the metro level. Marcus says vacancy was below 3.5%, rent growth was three times the U.S. pace, median household income exceeded $180,000, and median home price was near $2 million. That strengthens the rent-by-necessity and rent-by-choice thesis, but it also keeps San Jose tied to tech-cycle and AI-investment durability rather than broad Bay Area beta.
Marcus & Millichap's San Francisco Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026 adds the local hotel recovery overlay. It supports the hotel lane with 11.8 percent 2025 RevPAR growth, Levi's Stadium event demand from Super Bowl LX and FIFA World Cup matches, and AI-linked downtown office improvement. The allocation guardrail remains: Marcus also says occupancy was still roughly 10 percent below 2019 and international visitation was still lagging, so hotels are an operating-corridor and event-window thesis rather than broad gateway beta. See Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026.
Allocation Frame
| Bucket | What the market says | Best fit |
|---|---|---|
| AI / trophy office | CBRE's Q1 2026 SF print showed 30.4% vacancy, +2.27M SF net absorption, and $71.19/SF FSG asking rent, while SoMa and Mission Bay captured one of the clearest tracked AI-demand signals with Anthropic, OpenAI, and Salesforce-adjacent clustering. FiDi trophy vacancy was recorded at 15.3% versus 33.9% broader FiDi vacancy in the source stack, not as a current structured DB row. | Trophy and best Class A/AA office with AI, finance, or institutional tenant pull, especially SoMa / Mission Bay and select FiDi towers. Underwrite tenant specificity, leasing velocity, and basis rather than generic office recovery. |
| CBD distress / conversion | Mid-Market reached 45.7% vacancy in Q2 2025, X's 1355 Market / broader SF footprint exit remains the defining vacancy event, and the February 2026 Downtown Revitalization Financing District is a policy off-ramp rather than proof of delivered residential conversion. | Distressed-basis buyers, conversion specialists, and civic / nonprofit occupancy strategies that can survive long carry, complex entitlement, and uncertain office demand. Avoid applying SoMa AI assumptions to Mid-Market. |
| Life sciences | South San Francisco Life Sciences Corridor is a real biotech geography anchored by Genentech, Oyster Point / Gateway, and Alexandria / Kilroy / BioMed product. Cresa's Q4 2025 source read showed SSF-specific inventory, 27.7% vacancy, and meaningful Oyster Point / Gateway leasing, while countywide proxy data still showed a soft lab cycle. | Selective lab capital in the South San Francisco core with tenant credit, buildout control, and low-basis entry. This is not downtown SF office, and it is not yet a broad standalone allocation bucket without stronger pricing and transaction evidence. |
| Multifamily | SF Multifamily Market showed 4.6% Q4 2025 vacancy, roughly $3,200-$3,300/unit asking rents, and +5.7%-5.9% YoY rent growth, but the SF Rent Ordinance and AB 1482 split the investable universe sharply by certificate-of-occupancy and turnover economics. Marcus & Millichap's 1Q 2026 SF teaser adds a high-income demand check: SoMa and Mission Bay rent gains were above 10% as of late 2025, metro Class A average monthly rent rose nearly 10%, and San Mateo-Burlingame's Class A vacancy above 10% contrasted with sub-4% Class B/C vacancy. Marcus' 2Q SF teaser then reinforces the SF-proper constrained-supply lane with historically low vacancy context, CBD 3%-range vacancy after a 160-bp 2025 decline, and Class A rent growth above 13% in SoMa / Mission Bay / Richmond-Western Addition / Downtown SF. Oakland adds a separate East Bay recovery lane: Marcus & Millichap's 2Q 2026 teaser says Oakland-Berkeley vacancy fell 200 bps and rents rose 4.2% in the 12 months ended March 2026 after a 2019-2024 delivery overhang. San Jose adds the South Bay premium-node lane: Marcus says Mountain View / Palo Alto / Los Altos / North Sunnyvale were near 3% vacancy with above-6% rent growth, while East / South San Jose stayed below 2% rent growth; the 2Q teaser adds sub-3.5% vacancy, rent growth at three times the U.S. pace, and a $180,000-plus household-income / near-$2 million home-price affordability wedge. | Core / core-plus and basis-disciplined apartment capital that can separate unrestricted newer stock from pre-1979 rent-controlled assets, East Bay recovery capital that prices prior supply overhang separately from SF proper regulatory segmentation, and South Bay premium-node capital that prices tech-cycle concentration and node quality explicitly. Regulatory, class, node, and submarket diligence are the underwriting center, not an appendix. |
| Industrial / logistics | Bay Area Industrial Market is mainly an Oakland / East Bay and I-880 / Port of Oakland story. C&W's Q2 East Bay row reports 7.8% vacancy, +65,895 SF Q2 / -1.07M SF YTD absorption, and $1.21/SF/month NNN rent, with demand concentrated in Fremont and Newark rather than Oakland, Hayward, or Union City. CBRE's Q1 2026 San Francisco row separately reports 8.3% vacancy, +155,156 SF absorption, and $1.82/SF/month industrial-gross asking rent; Matthews' source-defined Q2 San Francisco row reports 12.5% vacancy, +693,000 SF absorption, 1.0% rent growth, and a 5.9% cap rate without defining lease structure or survey boundary; C&W's Q2 Silicon Valley row reports 6.4% vacancy, +851,866 SF YTD absorption, and $1.63/SF/month NNN rent. | Functional infill, port-adjacent, last-mile, and specialized R&D / advanced-manufacturing industrial. Keep SF proper, Matthews' source-defined market, East Bay, Peninsula flex, and Silicon Valley industrial separate. |
| Retail / hospitality | SF Retail Market now combines the Union Square / neighborhood-corridor bifurcation with C&W's six-county shopping-center table: 6.3% regional vacancy, +5,352 SF Q2 absorption, -182,630 SF YTD absorption, and $25.56/SF/year NNN asking rent, with San Francisco County at 15.4% vacancy. Marcus & Millichap's 1Q 2026 teaser still adds the downtown foot-traffic and policy context, while Oakland and San Jose remain separate East Bay / South Bay source families. SF Hospitality Market is improving with Moscone demand, 11.8% Marcus-reported 2025 RevPAR growth, 2026 FIFA / Super Bowl LX event demand, and 2028 California travel catalysts, but Marcus still flags roughly 10% below-2019 occupancy and lagging international visitation. | Neighborhood retail, high-conviction destination retail, transit-supported small-format retail, affluent South Bay daily-needs / experiential retail, and hotel assets with explicit demand capture. San Francisco County / Union Square, Berkeley-Richmond, Mountain View-Los Altos / North San Jose big boxes, and downtown hotels require turn-around assumptions, not simple cap-rate compression. |
Boundary Discipline
The biggest San Francisco allocation error is using "Bay Area" as one underwriting geography.
- San Francisco is the downtown / SoMa / FiDi office and SF County multifamily node.
- South San Francisco Life Sciences Corridor is a north San Mateo County biotech and lab corridor, not a downtown SF office submarket.
- Silicon Valley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara are corporate-campus, R&D, data-center, and high-income residential systems, not proof that SF CBD office demand has normalized.
- Oakland and Port of Oakland explain East Bay office distress, residential cost arbitrage, and port-driven industrial demand; they should not be used as substitute evidence for San Francisco proper.
- SFO International Airport supports hospitality, airport-corridor, and Peninsula connectivity theses, but SFO demand does not automatically validate downtown office or Union Square retail.
This memo therefore treats San Francisco as the allocation headline but keeps each capital bucket tied to the specific geography that actually supports it.
What Makes San Francisco Useful
- It is one of the clearest tracked examples of AI demand translating into signed urban office absorption rather than only data-center or venture-capital headlines.
- It has a visible trophy-versus-commodity office spread, which creates both core-quality and distressed-basis strategies in the same gateway market.
- It retains one of the country's deepest renter pools, with low homeownership, constrained supply, and severe regulatory segmentation.
- The surrounding Bay Area adds specialized channels that are strategically relevant but not interchangeable: South SF life sciences, Silicon Valley corporate campuses / data centers, SFO international travel, and Oakland / East Bay logistics.
- The recovery is narrow enough that disciplined capital can avoid many of the mistakes embedded in broad gateway-office or broad California-distress narratives.
Where Discipline Matters
- Do not average SoMa, FiDi trophy, commodity CBD, and Mid-Market into one office cap-rate or rent-growth assumption.
- Do not call South San Francisco lab exposure "San Francisco office." It has different tenants, buildouts, landlords, vacancy conditions, and capital-market comparables.
- Do not underwrite SF multifamily without separating pre-June 13, 1979 rent-controlled stock, AB 1482-covered stock, and newer unrestricted stock.
- Do not treat Union Square retail vacancy as proof that all SF retail is broken; also do not treat functioning neighborhood corridors as proof that Union Square has recovered.
- Do not turn SFO, Silicon Valley, or Oakland evidence into SF citywide claims unless the asset's tenant base and commute / logistics map actually connect to those nodes.
- Do not mistake policy support for conversion execution. Mid-Market and older FiDi office need acquisition basis, floorplate, code, financing, and carry analysis before conversion value is real.
Best-Fit Capital
San Francisco fits capital that can operate a barbell: high-conviction trophy / AI office and constrained multifamily on one side, and distressed-basis / conversion specialists on the other. Industrial capital should prefer East Bay / port and functional infill evidence over generic Bay Area labels. Life-sciences capital should treat South San Francisco as a selective, tenant-credit-and-basis corridor rather than a broad lab recovery call. Retail and hospitality capital should require corridor-level foot traffic, convention capture, and operating evidence.
The weakest fit is broad beta capital that wants one Bay Area recovery story. The source stack supports a narrow, high-dispersion allocation market, not a normalized gateway rebound.
Verification Notes
- Checked current-sensitive claims against reviewed source notes gathered on 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-30, plus the reviewed San Francisco office broker source note from 2026-04-18.
- Strong support: AI office absorption, SF office vacancy / rent, SoMa / Mission Bay tenant cluster, FiDi trophy bifurcation, Mid-Market distress, SF multifamily vacancy / rent-growth / regulation, Union Square retail bifurcation, hospitality convention recovery, East Bay industrial broker range, Port of Oakland volume, and SFO passenger / airline role.
- Support with caveats: South San Francisco lab investability is supported for geography and leasing relevance, but capital-markets depth remains thin; the page should not be read as a full lab allocation bucket equivalent to Boston or San Diego.
- Counterpoint preserved: high SF office absorption does not erase 30%+ citywide vacancy, Mid-Market distress, commodity office obsolescence, or Union Square retail weakness.
- Structured coverage caveat: current San Francisco DB coverage is sparse and mixed-typed: 18 observations across 4 geography rows, including Data Center, Mixed, Office, and Retail rows. South San Francisco life sciences, FiDi trophy-vacancy detail, Mid-Market distress, East Bay industrial, and hospitality operating claims are primarily source-note / wiki-supported rather than broadly DB-backed.
Related Pages
- Analyses Hub
- San Francisco Geography Hub
- San Francisco
- SF Investment Hub
- SoMa and Mission Bay
- Financial District and Downtown Core
- Mid-Market Tenderloin and Civic Center
- South San Francisco Life Sciences Corridor
- SF Multifamily Market
- SF Retail Market
- SF Hospitality Market
- Bay Area Industrial Market
- Oakland
- Port of Oakland
- Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap San Jose Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap San Jose Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap Oakland Multifamily Market Report 2Q 2026
- SFO International Airport
- Silicon Valley
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara
- AI Corporate Real Estate Footprint 2026
- AI Corporate Real Estate Footprint 2026
- National Office Capital Allocation 2026
- National Life Sciences Capital Allocation 2026
- Los Angeles and California CRE Capital Allocation 2026
- Office Bifurcation
- Life Sciences Cluster Geography
Sources
- San Francisco Office Market Depth 2025-2026 — reviewed public broker-source note for Q1 2026 SF office vacancy, absorption, asking rent, and AI-linked office recovery framing.
- SF Geography Verification 2026-04-30 Batch 1 — reviewed public source stack for SF County demographics, multifamily, retail, hospitality, Bay Area data centers, and East Bay industrial.
- SF Geography Verification 2026-04-30 Batch 2 — reviewed public source stack for SoMa / Mission Bay, Financial District, Mid-Market, SFO, and SF / Silicon Valley demographic comparisons.
- SF Geography Verification 2026-04-30 Batch 3 — reviewed public source stack for Silicon Valley, Oakland, Port of Oakland, Alameda / Santa Clara County context, and Alexandria / Bay Area life-sciences entity evidence.
- South San Francisco Life Sciences Cluster 2025-2026 — reviewed public source note for South San Francisco / Oyster Point / Gateway / Southline / Brisbane life-sciences corridor identity and late-2025 leasing evidence.
- Source - Strada Acquires Samsara Showplace Square HQ 2026
- Source: Ellis / Baupost Great America Commons Santa Clara 2026
- Source: CBRE Silicon Valley Industrial Figures Q1 2026
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield Silicon Valley Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2026
- Source: CBRE San Francisco Industrial Figures Q1 2026
- Source: Matthews San Francisco CA Industrial Market Report Q2 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Retail Market Report 1Q 2026
- Source: Cushman & Wakefield San Francisco North Bay Retail MarketBeat Q2 2026
- Source: Matthews San Francisco CA Retail Market Report Q2 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Multifamily Market Report 1Q 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap Oakland Retail Market Report 1Q 2026
- Source: Marcus & Millichap San Jose Retail Market Report 1Q 2026